NFL Week 2 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis

NFL Week 2 Betting Recap: Point Spread, Over/Under Results & Analysis (2020)

September 22, 2020 – by Jason Lisk

Christian McCaffrey was one of several notable losses in Week 2 (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire)

Unlike a lot of NFL players, this column has survived Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season unscathed. Last week featured no huge upsets but plenty of big-name injuries that could have a longer term impact on teams’ fortunes.

Below you’ll find a breakdown of not only how teams performed against the spread and over/under lines in Week 2, but also an analysis of the more important stuff, such as the fluky plays and highly improbable outcomes that can often make ATS records misleading. Digging beyond simple records often provides clues as to which teams may be setting up well for a future point spread cover.

(To search for your own NFL betting trends, we invite you to use the beta version of our BetIQ Trend Finder Tool.)

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NFL Week 2 By the Betting Numbers

Biggest upset: Las Vegas over New Orleans (+4, +172 money line)Biggest ATS cover margin: LA Rams over Philadelphia (+20, won by 18 points as 2-point underdog)Most points above over/under line: Atlanta-Dallas (+26, 79 total points vs. O/U line of 53)Most points below over/under line: NY Giants-Chicago (-12.5, 30 total points vs. O/U line of 42.5)Most points scored vs. team expectation: LA Rams (37 points vs. 22.0 expected)Fewest points scored vs. team expectation: Minnesota (11 points vs. 22.75 expected)

An Upset-Free Sunday Followed By A Vegas Monday Night Win

Sunday in the NFL featured some near-upsets, but in the end, the only team that was a betting underdog to win Sunday were the Los Angeles Rams. The Rams opened the week as the favorite but ended up as the smallest underdog of the week, with a 45% chance of winning based on betting odds.

So in a week where there were 11 games with teams favored by between 5 and 9 points, we saw no major upsets on the Sunday slate. That changed Monday, when the Raiders, as a 4-point underdog in their Las Vegas home opener, beat the New Orleans Saints 34-24.

The closest games to producing an upset earlier were:

The Chargers, the biggest dog of the week as a 9-point underdog, had a double-digit lead on the Kansas City Chiefs before losing in OT.The Falcons, a 3-point underdog, blew a large lead themselves to fall 40-39 to Dallas in dramatic fashion.The Patriots, a 4-point dog, had a goal line chance on the final play of the game to beat Seattle on the road but didn’t.The Jaguars, who tried to follow up the biggest upset of Week 1 as a 7-point underdog against Tennessee, were tied with the Titans until a late field goal followed by a Gardner Minshew interception in the last minute sealed it.

The net result of all these favorites surviving was a 14-2 straight up record for favorites in Week 2, but a 7-9 against the spread mark, as several underdogs covered the number but could not get the victory.

The Jets Appear To Be Bad at Football, Despite Having A “Brilliant” Offensive Mind

The New York Jets lost 31-13 at home to San Francisco in a game that wasn’t that close, a few days after owner Christopher Johnson praised head coach Adam Gase as a “brilliant offensive mind.”

That marks the second straight week the scoreline is probably generous to the J-E-T-S. Some of the lowlights from Sunday:

The Jets gave up  an 80-yard touchdown run to Raheem Mostert on the first play from scrimmage.The Jets allowed San Francisco to convert a 3rd-and-31 on a handoff to Jerick McKinnon for a 55-yard run. Not pass.New York ran seven plays at the San Francisco 20-yard line or closer, and gained a total of negative 5 yards on those plays.San Francisco QB Jimmy Garoppolo, RB Raheem Mostert, DE Nick Bosa and DE Solomon Thomas all left the game with injuries by halftime. The Jets still trailed 31-6 until a late fourth quarter touchdown.

Injuries Galore in NFL Week 2

Several key injuries happened in Week 2, many of which will have long-term implications and could impact the betting futures outlook for several teams. They include:

RB Saquon Barkley of the New York Giants suffered a torn ACL and is out for the rest of the year. (The Giants are expected to sign free agent RB Devonta Freeman today.)RB Christian McCaffrey suffered a foot/ankle injury and is expected to miss multiple weeks for the Carolina Panthers.For Denver, QB Drew Lock was knocked out early with a shoulder injury and is now expected to miss 3-5 weeks, while WR Courtland Sutton suffered a season-ending knee injury. (Denver is reportedly signing QB Blake Bortles.)As noted above on San Francisco, star DE Nick Bosa likely suffered a season-ending ACL injury. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has a high ankle sprain and his status for Week 3 is in question.Indianapolis WR Parris Campbell, who looked poised for a breakout after Week 1, is now likely also out for a long period of time with an MCL injury. The Colts also lost safety Malik Hooker for the season with an ACL injury.Vikings linebacker Anthony Barr has been declared out for the year with a torn pectoral muscle.Green Bay WR Davante Adams suffered a hamstring injury and his status for Week 3 will be in question.

NFL Home Field Advantage in 2020

One of the things we will track this year is how home teams are performing, with many teams playing in front of no fans to start the year.

In Week 2, home teams went 11-5 SU and 8-8 ATS. That makes home teams 19-13 SU (59.4%) and 17-15 ATS (53.1%) so far in 2020.

Every team in the NFL has now played one home game and one road game. The home teams have been favored, on average, by 1.4 points through the first two weeks, and the average final score margin so far has been +2.8 points in favor of the home team.

Back in the summer, when we analyzed 2020 NFL home field advantage and predicting the impact of reduced crowds, we stated:

In terms of predicting outcomes of NFL games with potentially much smaller or no crowds in 2020, there doesn’t seem to be much evidence warranting a big adjustment to expected home field advantage.

Because the small sample size of 2020 games, we can’t definitively conclude anything yet, but so far home field advantage does not appear drastically different than the aggregate of recent seasons.

For the 2015 to 2019 NFL seasons, the average point spread for Week 1 and Week 2 games was 2.2 points in favor of the home team, and the average result was a home team win by 2.5 points. Home teams won 54.4% of those games straight up and covered the spread 46.9% of the time.

The primary difference so far this year is what appears to be a slight downward adjustment in expected home field advantage, but similar results for home teams (compared to the recent past) to start the season.

Turnovers, Miscues & Failures: Week 2 Edition

In this section each week, we will list a summary of drives that ended with turnovers, but not only official turnovers like interceptions and fumbles.

We also tally up other high-leverage events that likely led to either loss of points or great field position for an opponent. Safeties and blocked punts are included in turnovers, and blocked field goals are included in missed field goal attempts.

Week 2 Turnovers, Missed Field Goals, and Failed Attempts

Team	Turnovers	FG Miss	Downs	TOTAL	ATS Result
Carolina	4	0	1	5	Loss
Dallas	3	0	2	5	Loss
Denver	3	1	1	5	Win
Minnesota	4	0	0	4	Loss
Philadelphia	3	0	1	4	Loss
Chicago	2	1	0	3	Loss
Detroit	1	1	1	3	Loss
Houston	2	0	1	3	Loss
NY Giants	2	1	0	3	Win
Pittsburgh	2	0	1	3	Loss
Cleveland	1	0	1	2	Loss
Jacksonville	2	0	0	2	Win
LA Chargers	1	0	1	2	Win
New England	1	1	0	2	Loss
NY Jets	0	0	2	2	Loss
Tampa Bay	2	0	0	2	Win
Arizona	1	0	0	1	Win
Buffalo	1	0	0	1	Loss
Cincinnati	1	0	0	1	Win
Indianapolis	1	0	0	1	Win
Las Vegas	1	0	0	1	Win
Miami	0	0	1	1	Win
New Orleans	1	0	0	1	Loss
San Francisco	1	0	0	1	Win
Seattle	1	0	0	1	Win
Washington	1	0	0	1	Loss
Atlanta	0	0	0	0	Win
Baltimore	0	0	0	0	Win
Green Bay	0	0	0	0	Win
Kansas City	0	0	0	0	Loss
LA Rams	0	0	0	0	Win
Tennessee	0	0	0	0	Loss

In case you ever doubt how much turnovers and/or other largely random bad luck plays can impact a team’s win-loss and ATS records, take note that most of the teams at the top of the table lost (and failed to cover) while most of those at the bottom won (and covered).

One notable exception in the win column is Dallas, who had 5 drives end in bad mistake outcomes, but rallied to beat Atlanta on a last second field goal after recovering this onside kick attempt.

This is legitimately one of the craziest onside kick mistakes I’ve ever seen in the #NFL. pic.twitter.com/bYk1qoqK7Z

— Charles Robinson (@CharlesRobinson) September 20, 2020

Atlanta is officially down with zero turnovers, missed field goals, or failed fourth down attempts to end drives, so that play isn’t in the official tally but spiritually counts…

Drive-Ending Miscues By Team: 2020 Season Tally

Here’s a summary of the full season so far showing the net number of drives ending in turnovers or miscues for each team. As you might expect, several of the teams near the top are 2-0 ATS, while some notable disappointments appear at the bottom of the list.

2020 Season Summary, Drives Ending in Turnovers or Other Failed Plays

Team	Mistakes	Opponent	Net	ATS Record
Baltimore	1	9	8	2-0
Seattle	1	7	6	2-0
Green Bay	1	6	5	2-0
LA Rams	2	7	5	2-0
Kansas City	0	4	4	1-1
Pittsburgh	3	7	4	1-1
Washington	3	7	4	1-1
Jacksonville	2	5	3	2-0
New Orleans	2	4	2	1-1
Chicago	4	5	1	1-1
Cincinnati	4	5	1	1-1
Las Vegas	1	2	1	2-0
NY Jets	4	5	1	0-2
San Francisco	4	5	1	1-1
Tampa Bay	5	6	1	1-1
Tennessee	3	4	1	0-2
Arizona	4	4	0	2-0
Atlanta	5	5	0	1-1
New England	4	4	0	1-1
Denver	7	6	-1	2-0
Miami	4	3	-1	1-1
Buffalo	5	3	-2	1-1
Indianapolis	6	4	-2	1-1
LA Chargers	5	3	-2	2-0
NY Giants	5	3	-2	1-1
Carolina	6	2	-4	0-2
Detroit	5	1	-4	0-2
Houston	5	0	-5	0-2
Minnesota	7	2	-5	0-2
Cleveland	8	2	-6	0-2
Dallas	8	2	-6	0-2
Philadelphia	10	2	-8	0-2

2020 Point Spread Result Splits

Here’s how some of the more standard spilts look after Week 2:

TYPE	ATS W	ATS L	ATS T	ATS %
Favorites	16	16	0	0.500
Underdogs	16	16	0	0.500
Home Teams	17	15	0	0.531
Away Teams	15	17	0	0.469

2020 Scoring vs. Historical Seasons

Here’s a running tally of how overall NFL scoring so far in 2020 compares to the full season averages of recent seasons, based on average total points scored per game:

2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
49.4	45.6	46.7	43.4	45.6

Scoring is up for 2020 so far, topping an average of 50 points scored per game through the first two weeks.

2020 NFL ATS & Over/Under Performance By Team

Finally, here are updated against the point spread and over/under records so far in 2020. You can check out more trends on our BetIQ NFL betting trends page.

2020 NFL ATS and O/U Records

Team	Wins ATS	Losses ATS	Ties ATS	Streak	Over	Under	Push	O/U Streak
Arizona	2	0	0	W2	0	2	0	U2
Atlanta	1	1	0	W1	2	0	0	O2
Baltimore	2	0	0	W2	0	2	0	U2
Buffalo	1	1	0	L1	2	0	0	O2
Carolina	0	2	0	L2	2	0	0	O2
Chicago	1	1	0	L1	1	1	0	U1
Cincinnati	1	1	0	W1	1	1	0	O1
Cleveland	0	2	0	L2	1	1	0	O1
Dallas	0	2	0	L2	1	1	0	O1
Denver	2	0	0	W2	1	1	0	O1
Detroit	0	2	0	L2	2	0	0	O2
Green Bay	2	0	0	W2	2	0	0	O2
Houston	0	2	0	L2	1	1	0	U1
Indianapolis	1	1	0	W1	1	1	0	U1
Jacksonville	2	0	0	W2	2	0	0	O2
Kansas City	1	1	0	L1	1	1	0	U1
LA Chargers	2	0	0	W2	0	2	0	U2
LA Rams	2	0	0	W2	1	1	0	O1
Las Vegas	2	0	0	W2	2	0	0	O2
Miami	1	1	0	W1	1	1	0	O1
Minnesota	0	2	0	L2	1	1	0	U1
New England	1	1	0	L1	1	1	0	O1
New Orleans	1	1	0	L1	2	0	0	O2
NY Giants	1	1	0	W1	0	2	0	U2
NY Jets	0	2	0	L2	2	0	0	O2
Philadelphia	0	2	0	L2	2	0	0	O2
Pittsburgh	1	1	0	L1	1	1	0	O1
San Francisco	1	1	0	W1	1	1	0	O1
Seattle	2	0	0	W2	2	0	0	O2
Tampa Bay	1	1	0	W1	2	0	0	O2
Tennessee	0	2	0	L2	1	1	0	O1
Washington	1	1	0	L1	1	1	0	U1

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