NFL Playoff Projections Update: New England Rises Again

NFL Playoff Projections Update: New England Rises Again

October 16, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

Heading into Week 6, it looks like the cream may be rising to the top, with the top two Super Bowl favorites distancing themselves even more from the rest of the league.

Here’s how our projections look after Week 5, with several notable changes since last week’s games.

Note: These projections were pulled on Thursday morning 10/15, and don’t reflect the result of the Week 6 Saints/Falcons game on Thursday night.

About Our NFL Season Projections

Before we get started, some brief background on our projections:

The numbers in this post are pulled directly from our 2015 NFL projected standings page, which is updated every single day until the end of the seasonTo make season projections, we’ve built a computer simulation engine that steps through all the remaining games one by one. Win-loss odds for future games are driven by our NFL team predictive rankings.To help smooth out the potential effects of randomness in the simulation results, we run thousands of season simulations every day, and average the results to come up with our posted projections. As a result, you’ll rarely see us forecasting very extreme results (e.g. a team going 16-0 or 1-15), even though it’s bound to happen some years thanks to good or bad luck.You can look at projections pages under every team section, like our Patriots projections page, to get a much more detailed sense of the range of possible outcomes our simulations generated for each team.An important feature of our season simulations is that they also incorporate variability into each team’s predictive rating, both to help model for unexpected situations (e.g. a team’s starting QB getting injured) and as an acknowledgement that our team ratings are never going to be perfectly accurate, especially as team dynamics change over the course of a season.If you’re curious, you can also view our NFL preseason projections for 2015

2016 Super Bowl Odds: The Top 5 Entering Week 6

Team	Odds to Win Super Bowl	Change Since Last Week
New England	26.4%	6.0%
Green Bay	19.1%	0.0%
Denver	12.9%	-2.2%
Arizona	7.9%	2.9%
Cincinnati	7.0%	-0.5%

After a dominant win vs. Dallas on Sunday, along with a slightly closer than expected win by Denver over Oakland, New England’s Super Bowl win odds have improved. At 26%, their odds are now more than twice as good as the Broncos and nearly four times that of Cincinnati, the AFC team with the third best odds.Green Bay’s Super Bowl odds remain unchanged; their predictive rating increased only very slightly after beating St. Louis by two touchdowns at home. Still, the Pack’s championship odds are currently more than 10% higher than the next highest NFC team, Arizona.Arizona and Seattle have basically traded places since last week. Seattle had 8.1% Super Bowl win odds, which have declined to 5.9% after their loss to Cincinnati. The Cardinals increased from 5.0% last week to 7.9% this week.After a 2.3% jump last week, Cincinnati saw an very slight drop in their Super Bowl odds, and their predictive rating remained the same as last week. Although they beat defeating champs Seattle by three points at home, that wasn’t much more than our ratings expected (Cincy by 1). Meanwhile, all four of Cincinnati’s past opponents lost last week, and three played significantly worse than expected. So they lost some credit for past wins.

AFC Playoff Picture

	W/L		PROJ		PLAYOFFS		WIN DIV	TOP SEED
AFC East	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-New England	4	0	13.1	2.9	97.7%	4.4%	82.9%	47.0%
y-NY Jets	3	1	9.7	6.3	63.2%	-1.4%	12.4%	4.5%
Buffalo	3	2	8.8	7.2	45.0%	9.2%	4.1%	1.2%
Miami	1	3	6.1	9.9	5.5%	-0.2%	0.5%	0.0%
AFC North	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Cincinnati	5	0	11.6	4.4	90.3%	3.9%	76.8%	15.9%
y-Pittsburgh	3	2	9	7	48.0%	14.5%	19.0%	1.3%
Baltimore	1	4	6.9	9.1	10.5%	-16.2%	2.3%	0.0%
Cleveland	2	3	5.7	10.3	4.8%	3.2%	1.8%	0.0%
AFC South	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Indianapolis	3	2	9.2	6.8	81.2%	15.9%	80.2%	1.9%
Tennessee	1	3	6.1	9.9	12.5%	-5.1%	10.2%	0.1%
Houston	1	4	5.6	10.4	8.9%	-9.8%	7.3%	0.0%
Jacksonville	1	4	4.5	11.5	2.9%	-2.2%	2.3%	0.0%
AFC West	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Denver	5	0	12.2	3.8	94.9%	1.8%	91.5%	27.9%
San Diego	2	3	7.4	8.6	16.2%	-10.1%	5.3%	0.1%
Kansas City	1	4	6.8	9.2	14.2%	-10.3%	2.5%	0.0%
Oakland	2	3	5.6	10.4	4.1%	-90.0%	0.7%	0.0%

x-Projected division winner     y-Projected Wild Card team

AFC Top Seed

The Patriots expected season win total increased by nearly a full win since last week, and their odds of being the AFC’s top seed went up by nearly 10 percent. New England’s predictive rating is currently 3.3 points higher than Denver’s, and if that keeps up, our ratings would expect a toss-up game when the Patriots visit Denver later this season.

AFC Division Races

AFC East. With the Jets on a bye, New England’s division win odds increased to nearly 83%. Notably, Miami, a team that many analysts liked coming into the season, now has the lowest division win odds in the AFC (0.5%) and only about a 1-in-20 chance of making the playoffs.AFC North. Pittsburgh is hanging onto hope (19% odds to win the division) after their win vs. San Diego on the last play of the game Monday night. Both Cincinnati (at 77%) and Pittsburgh’s odds of winning the division increased slightly as a result of another loss by Baltimore, and both teams also saw their season win total projections increase by about half a win.AFC South. This division already looked like a dud, and it got even worse this week. The Colts took down Houston without Andrew Luck, while Tennessee and Jacksonville also lost. Indianapolis has now beaten every team in the division over the last three weeks. So despite a projection of only 9.2 wins, they still have a very large cushion for the division crown (80% to win it, with second-most-likely Tennessee at only 10%).AFC West. Denver had the best odds in the AFC to win their division last week, and those odds improved to almost 92%, thanks to beating division rival Oakland and the other two teams in the division both losing in upsets. Division rivals San Diego and Kansas City are now both projected to finish below .500, and the Broncos have already knocked off Kansas City and Oakland on the road.

AFC Wild Card

The Jets remain the front runners for the top Wild Card spot after sitting idle in their bye week.Pittsburgh had a nice upset win at San Diego, and saw their season win total projection increase by about half a win as a result. The odds that the Steelers make the playoffs increased by nearly 15 percent (to 48%, almost a 50/50 shot), and that was enough to snatch the expected second Wild Card spot from Buffalo. However, the Bills are right on Pittsburgh’s tail after a 1-point win at Tennessee.

NFC Playoff Picture

	W/L		PROJ		PLAYOFFS		WIN DIV	TOP SEED
NFC East	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-NY Giants	3	2	8.3	7.7	43.2%	2.5%	36.3%	0.8%
Philadelphia	2	3	8.3	7.7	43.1%	13.4%	34.6%	0.5%
Dallas	2	3	7.3	8.7	28.1%	-14.5%	22.3%	0.3%
Washington	2	3	6.1	9.9	9.4%	-3.4%	6.9%	0.0%
NFC North	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Green Bay	5	0	12.6	3.4	97.5%	2.0%	90.8%	46.8%
Minnesota	2	2	8.2	7.8	37.0%	0.4%	8.4%	2.2%
Chicago	2	3	5.9	10.1	3.8%	2.1%	0.5%	0.0%
Detroit	0	5	5.1	10.9	2.0%	-5.3%	0.3%	0.0%
NFC South	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Atlanta	5	0	11.6	4.4	90.8%	3.5%	61.6%	23.9%
y-Carolina	4	0	10.2	5.8	71.5%	1.4%	36.5%	11.6%
New Orleans	1	4	6.3	9.7	6.7%	-5.3%	1.4%	0.0%
Tampa Bay	2	3	5.4	10.6	3.1%	0.6%	0.5%	0.0%
NFC West	W	L	W	L	Playoffs	Change	Win Div	Top Seed
x-Arizona	4	1	10.4	5.6	77.3%	16.4%	56.5%	11.6%
y-Seattle	2	3	9.3	6.7	59.0%	-8.9%	32.1%	1.9%
St Louis	2	3	7.7	8.3	25.4%	-5.6%	10.8%	0.2%
San Francisco	1	4	4.8	11.2	1.9%	-1.5%	0.6%	0.0%

x-Projected division winner     y-Projected Wild Card team

NFC Top Seed

There are still three undefeated teams in the NFC (Note: two now, after Atlanta’s loss), but Green Bay’s odds to win the top seed increased by nearly two percent (to 47%) since last week with yet another win.The top seed odds for Atlanta (24%) and Carolina (12%) are basically unchanged since last week, while Arizona (now 12% also) vaulted themselves into the picture with yet another blowout win.

NFC Division Races

NFC East. With one more division win to date, which could help in a tiebreaker situation, the Giants (at 36%) hold a very slight edge to win the division over the Eagles (at 35%), despite equivalent projected win-loss records. The Eagles saw a big increase in playoff odds, though, after their stomping of New Orleans on Sunday, with their predictive rating rising almost a point. The two teams will face off this Sunday in Philly. Despite a blowout loss to the Patriots, Dallas isn’t too far behind at 22%, but their playoff odds took a hit (-15% since last week).NFC North. Green Bay slightly increased in their odds to win the division (from 89% to 91%), winning as expected on Sunday, while Detroit fell further into the cellar with their fifth loss. Despite the upset win over Kansas City, the Bears still project as a non-factor in the division race, with the Vikings the only team with more than a remote chance (8%) to mount a challenge. They face the Pack in Week 11.NFC South. Another week led to another win for the Falcons, thanks in part to their very easy schedule. But the overtime win against the Redskins added fuel to the argument that any comparison to Green Bay ends after the often misleading stat of win-loss record. With the Falcons and Panthers virtually tied in our predictive ratings, an extra win plus Atlanta’s future schedule strength (or lack thereof) are primarily why the Falcons, at 62%, currently have better odds to win the division than the Panthers (37%). (Note: those numbers are from before New Orleans upset Atlanta on Thursday. After that game, Atlanta’s division win have odds have dropped to 53%, and Carolina’s are up to 44%. The Saints are still a relative non-factor at 3%, thanks to their bad win-loss record.)NFC West. Arizona is now favored to win the division (57% odds), after getting a nice boost in their predictive rating from blowing out Detroit, and with the Seahawks falling to 2-3. We still rate Seattle as the better team, but the margin is less than a point now. It’s also worth noting that Arizona has the toughest future schedule, which impacts their season win total projection.

NFC Wild Card

Carolina still leads the way after a bye week, and are set to face the other projected NFC Wild Card, Seattle, this week. With only five teams above .500 right now in the NFC, the Panthers are sitting in very good position to make the playoffs, with a 72% chance.Seattle’s game vs. Carolina could be pivotal for their playoff hopes. The Seahawks blew a 17 point lead going into the fourth quarter vs. Cincinnati, and they’re now one of six 2-3 teams in the NFC. Four of those teams, Seattle included, project with between 8 and 10 wins, and Seattle is favored to beat the Panthers. If they don’t, it could make things significantly tougher.

If you liked this post, please share it. Thank you! Twitter Facebook