Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 8 + College Week 9

Football Upset Watch: NFL Week 8 + College Week 9

October 28, 2015 – by Seth Trachtman

Last weekend brought two more huge upsets we profiled in our previous Upset Watch column:

Georgia Tech over Florida State. Georgia Tech ended a five-game losing streak, shocking Florida State with a dramatic blocked field goal return touchdown.Oakland over San Diego. The Raiders dominated San Diego for most of Sunday’s game despite being 4-point underdogs, and led 37-6 going into the fourth quarter.

Another game profiled last week, Atlanta at Tennessee, was decided by a field goal, with the underdog Titans’s potentially winning drive in the final minutes cut short by an interception.

This week we’re highlighting seven more football underdogs getting no respect from the public.

Upset Tracking Scoreboard

Games highlighted so far: 30Upsets the public picked: 1.92Upsets we expected: 9.3Upsets that happened: 8

(Note: All expectation numbers listed above are based on the numbers we publish in our upset watch blog posts.)

The two upsets last week were again slightly lower than expected for the week (2.4), so we’re trailing our expectations by a little over one game so far this season.

About Our Upset Watch Column

Rather than just present the most likely upsets to happen (you can find those on our premium NFL most likely upsets and college football most likely upsets pages), what we do in this column is highlight a series of games that generally meet two criteria:

The underdog is being almost criminally underrated by the general public, based on public picking estimates from our Football Pick’em Picks productThe teams playing are generally of high interest to lots of fans (mainly applies to college football)

What that means is that we still expect each of the individual teams we highlight in this column to lose (i.e. they all have under 50% win odds). But as a group, if a few of the following teams end up winning, that would qualify as a huge surprise according to the public’s expectations — but not to us.

Important note: All pick odds and betting lines quoted in this post were accurate as of 10/28, and may have changed since then.

NFL Upset Watch: Week 8 Games

Cleveland (home) over Arizona

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Cleveland	vs. Arizona	ARI by 4.5	40.1%	10.0%

The Cardinals are playing on a short week after beating Baltimore on Monday night, and have lost two of their last four games. Cleveland is only 1-2 at home, but haven’t lost by more than a touchdown on their home turf.

Arizona at Cleveland Matchup

San Francisco (away) over St. Louis

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
San Francisco	at St. Louis	STL by 8.0	26.4%	9.0%

The 49ers are big underdogs after getting embarrassed by Seattle, but they have extra rest after a Thursday night game. While the San Francisco defense has been leaky, they’ve also held opposing teams to only 4.0 yards per carry. St. Louis has improved their offense with the help of running back Todd Gurley, but rank dead last in passing yards.

San Francisco at St. Louis Matchup

Tampa Bay (away) over Atlanta

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Tampa Bay	at Atlanta	ATL by 7.5	20.1%	3.0%

The Falcons are big favorites, but it’s hard to overlook their struggles over the last three weeks. They needed overtime to beat Washington and edged out Tennessee by only three points last week. The Bucs have played better recently, defeating Jacksonville in Week 5 and losing to Washington on the road by only one point in Week 6.

Tampa Bay at Atlanta Matchup

Miami (away) over New England

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Miami	at New England	MIA by 8.0	22.0%	6.0%

A sleeper team according to many experts entering the year, the Dolphins have looked like a new squad over the last two weeks after replacing ex-head coach Joe Philbin. They’ve won their last two games by a combined 46 points. New England, meanwhile, underperformed Vegas expectations in Sunday’s victory over the Jets.

Miami at New England Matchup

College Football Upset Watch: Week 9 Games

Texas Tech (home) over Oklahoma State

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Texas Tech	vs. Oklahoma State	OSU by 3.0	38.4%	7.0%

While Oklahoma State remains undefeated, they’ve played only one opponent in the top 50 of our predictive rankings. On the other hand, Texas Tech’s three losses are all against teams currently ranked in our top 10. Tech’s only home loss was vs. TCU, by only three points.

Oklahoma State at Texas Tech Matchup

Georgia (neutral) over Florida

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
Georgia	vs. Florida	FLA by 3.0	40.9%	14.0%

Florida has played only one game after losing starting quarterback Will Grier, when they lost by a touchdown at LSU; the jury is still out on how they’ll fare without him. Like Florida, Georgia is returning from an off week after losing a star (RB Nick Chubb), but appears underrated in this rivalry matchup with the SEC East crown at stake.

Florida at Georgia Matchup

NC State (home) vs. Clemson

Underdog	Favorite	Point Spread	Upset Odds	Public Pick
NC State	vs. Clemson	CLEM by 10.0	21.5%	0.0%

Clemson crushed off a Miami team that had seemingly given up last week, and they’re on the road for the second week in a row. NC State has two losses this season, but both came against teams ranked in the top 50 of our predictive rankings. Virtually none of the public has picked NC State to win, but they might just catch the Tigers sleeping.

Clemson at NC State Matchup

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