Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays Predictions, Odds & Starting Pitchers for Sunday (July 28)
by Brady Trettenero in MLB Baseball
Updated Jul 27, 2024 · 10:18 PM PDT
Jul 22, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Cincinnati Reds starting pitcher Hunter Greene (21) throws against the Atlanta Braves in the second inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY SportsWe’ve made our Reds vs Rays prediction for Sunday’s MLB matchupThe Reds are narrow -125 road favorites, with the Rays at +105Read below for Reds vs Rays prediction, odds, and pitching matchup for July 28th
The Cincinnati Reds (50-53) will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays (52-52) in the final game of their three-game series at Tropicana Field on Sunday, July 28, 2024. The first pitch is scheduled for 11:35 AM EST and the game will be televised on Bally Sports Sun.
The Reds are favored with a moneyline of -125, while the Rays are the underdogs at +105. The over/under for total runs scored is set at 7.5.
Let’s analyze the Sunday morning baseball odds as we make our Reds vs Rays prediction for July 28th.
Reds vs Rays Prediction Sunday
The Reds arrived in Tampa Bay riding a three-game winning streak, but the Rays cooled them off with a 4-0 shutout victory on Saturday to even the series. Cincinnati’s bats were quieted, managing only four hits in the contest.
Tampa Bay starter Zack Littell was brilliant, tossing seven scoreless innings. This came just a day after the Reds edged out a tight 3-2 win in Friday’s opener. Alex Jackson and Yandy Diaz provided the power for the Rays in game two, each hitting a home run.
For Sunday’s rubber match, the Reds will send ace Hunter Greene to the hill. Greene has been outstanding this season, posting a 3.14 ERA. The Rays have yet to announce their starting pitcher, but could opt for a bullpen game approach.
Hunter Greene made this look way too easy 😮 pic.twitter.com/B7T3wRL6JJ
— MLB (@MLB) July 22, 2024
The Reds’ bullpen was a bright spot in game two, tossing four scoreless innings after starter Andrew Abbott struggled. If Greene can give them a quality start, the Reds will have a good chance to take the series.
Working against the Reds is the fact the Rays are a different animal at the Trop. Tampa Bay’s lineup also has a bit more thump, averaging 7.83 hits per game to Cincy’s 7.54. The Rays also have an uncanny knack for rising to the occasion as an underdog (25-25 record).
Despite Greene taking the round, I like the Rays to keep this close and cover the run line in their home barn. However, my top play is the “under” for what should be a low-scoring, tightly contested conclusion to the series.
Sunday Morning MLB Picks:
Under 7.5 Runs (-120)Rays +1.5 (-155) Best MLB Baseball Betting Sites & Apps For 2024Read More
Reds vs Rays Odds
Team Spread Moneyline Total Cincinnati Reds -1.5 (+130) -125 Over 7.5 (+100) Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 (-155) +105 Under 7.5 (-120) The oddsmakers have the Reds as -125 favorites, implying a 55.6% probability they will win the game. The Rays are +105 home underdogs, with a 48.5% implied probability of victory.
It’s a tad surprising to see the Reds laying lumber on the road against a .500 Rays squad. While both clubs have nearly identical records, the Rays have been the better bet as an underdog (25-25) relative to the Reds as a fave (25-24).
The tight moneyline tells us oddsmakers are expecting a competitive, coin-flip type affair. The odds ticked further in the Rays’ direction following their decisive shutout victory in game two.
Both clubs have been an under machine of late, each staying below the total in four of their last five contests. Hence, the moderate 7.5 run total. We’re banking on a low-scoring, every-run-matters kind of ballgame.
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Cincinnati vs Tampa Bay Starting Pitchers
The Reds have a notable pitching advantage with Greene getting the nod. The 24-year-old hurler has been absolutely brilliant this season, spinning a 3.14 ERA. He’s allowed two earned runs or fewer in eight of his last ten trips to the hill.
Greene will look to stifle a Rays lineup featuring some dangerous lumber in the form of Randy Arozarena, Yandy Diaz and Wander Franco. But the kid has swing-and-miss stuff that can overpower any lineup when he’s got his A-game – don’t be surprised if he racks up solid strikeout numbers.
GreeneVSTBD
7-4 Record OFF 3.14 ERA OFF 4.08 FIP OFF 1.24 WHIP OFF 3.12 K/BB OFF The Rays are playing their starting pitcher close to the vest for this one. They may elect to go with a bullpen game, utilizing high-leverage arms like Jason Adam and Pete Fairbanks. Tampa Bay has gotten solid work from starters like Shane Baz and Taj Bradley earlier in this series.
Whoever takes the bump for the Rays will have their work cut out for them against a Reds lineup boasting budding stars Elly De La Cruz and Spencer Steer.
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