I selected some pretty good offensive fade candidates for tonight’s No Runs First Inning (NRFI) plays, as each team featured ranks in the bottom half of baseball in nearly all offensive statistical categories. The “better" two of the offenses are also up against two All-Star pitchers, which gives me confidence we will see some pretty low-scoring environments in the early goings of both games. Let’s keep stacking up NRFI wins as we enter the final third of the MLB regular season.
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2024 NRFI Record: 38-27 (+3.23 Units)
Tuesday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Garrett Crochet vs. Jon Gray
Rangers righty Jon Gray is having one of the statistically best seasons of his career, even though some of his underlying numbers might suggest otherwise. He’s currently holding a 3.96 ERA, with a walk rate that sits in the 74th percentile and a chase rate that ranks above the 60th percentile. That figures to play very well tonight against a White Sox lineup that ranks top-10 in strikeouts and second-worst in walks in the entire league.
Gray’s pitching splits suggest he’s been a better pitcher at home. The White Sox’s hitting splits tell us they fare worse against right-handed pitching. The White Sox have been abysmal offensively in general, ranking dead-last in on-base percentage (OBP), OPS and slugging (SLG) while ranking second-worst in batting average (AVG) and third-worst in home runs. While Gray isn’t necessarily elite, he should have no problem navigating this lineup and I like how the splits breakdown works to his advantage.
Perhaps the most prestigious target of this year’s trade deadline will be the White Sox’s lone All-Star €” left-hander Garrett Crochet. Crochet has been dynamite this season, rocking a 3.02 ERA and sub-1.00 WHIP with advanced numbers that are off the charts. Crochet ranks in the top quartile of pitchers in average exit velocity, chase rate and walk rate, and he ranks above the 90th percentile in just about everything else: xERA, xBA, fastball velo, whiff% and K%. His barrel rate also falls just shy of the 70th percentile, not too shabby either.
The Rangers have been disappointing all year long from an offensive perspective after setting the league on fire en route to a World Series win last year. They currently rank in the bottom half of the MLB in nearly all statistical categories, including AVG, OBP, OPS, SLG and HR.
Bet: NRFI (-135 @ BetMGM)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Seattle Mariners
Starting Pitchers: Jose Soriano vs. Logan Gilbert
In a star-studded rotation of starting pitchers, righty Logan Gilbert seems to have emerged as the ace of the Mariners staff. Gilbert’s 2.79 ERA and 0.87 WHIP are outstanding and backed by xERA, xBA, whiff% and walk rates that all rank above the 74th percentile. Gilbert is also coming off of a start against this very same Angels team where he dominated, throwing seven innings and striking out nine while only allowing two hits and zero runs.
I see no reason to believe he won’t match that success tonight against an Angels lineup that lacks productivity, ranking 20th or worse in AVG, OBP, OPS, SLG and HR. The Angels are also significantly worse against right-handed pitching, which will do them no favors against one of the best in the American League tonight.
The 25-year-old flamethrower Jose Soriano gets the start for the Angels tonight in what has been an up-and-down second season for the righty. Soriano is one of the hardest-throwing starting pitchers, rivaling Paul Skenes with a four-seam fastball that averages 99 miles per hour (MPH) and a sinker that comes in at 98 MPH. His stuff is electric and when he’s on, he’s inducing ground balls at a 60.7% clip, which is good for the 97th percentile. He has a tendency to get hit hard and walks more batters than he should, which are caveats to this play, but I love his stuff and trust him to throw strikes against a pretty dreadful Mariners lineup.
The Mariners team batting average is worse than that of the aforementioned White Sox and they rank bottom-three in OBP, OPS and SLG despite hitting the 11th-most home runs in the league, which begs the question of how bad those numbers would be if not for the long ball. Their power numbers are also slightly depressed against right-handed pitching, so Soriano should absolutely succeed tonight as long as he keeps the ball in the strike zone. Both pitchers also get the benefit of pitching at T-Mobile Park, which ranks dead-last in all of baseball by a significant margin in overall offensive ballpark factors since 2022.
Bet: NRFI (-135 @ BetMGM, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Make sure to check out our other best bets for Tuesday:
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