New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Odds, Predictions & Player-Prop Picks for Sunday Night Baseball

Aug 10, 2024; Seattle, Washington, USA; Seattle Mariners left fielder Randy Arozarena (56) signals safe after hitting a single against the New York Mets during the seventh inning at T-Mobile Park. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY SportsThe New York Mets visit the Seattle Mariners in the finale of a three-game series on Sunday Night Baseball on Aug. 11The Mariners have dominated the first two games, outscoring the Mets 10-0See the Mets vs Mariners odds, predictions, and best player props to bet

Both in pitched battles for Wild Card spots in their respective leagues, the New York Mets (61-56, 31-27 away) and Seattle Mariners (62-56, 36-26 home) finish off a three-game series at T-Mobile Park this evening on Sunday Night Baseball (4:00 pm PT/7:00 pm ET).

A pair of veterans meet on the  mound as Luis Severino gets the ball for New York against Luis Castillo for Seattle. Coming off a pair of lopsided, shutout victories on Friday and Saturday, the home team is favored to complete the sweep in Sunday’s Mets vs Mariners odds.

Mets vs Mariners Odds

The Mariners are listed at -134 home favorites in Sunday’s MLB odds with the Mets coming back as +114 road underdogs. The run total is sitting at just 7.5 with the under slightly favored.

Seattle has been the third-best under team in baseball this year (50-62-6 O/U) while the Mets have skewed slightly to the over (58-55-4).

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Odds as of August 11 at FanDuel. Download the best MLB betting app to wager on Sunday Night Baseball.

The Mariners currently find themselves in a tie with the Astros atop the AL West but Houston holds the tiebreaker. Seattle is a +135 underdog to the Astros in the MLB division odds.

If they don’t win the division, making the playoffs is going to be a tough go; the Mariners are currently three games back of Kansas City for the final AL Wild Card berth with Boston in between.

The Mets are eight games back of the division-leading Phillies in the NL East but are only half a game behind Atlanta for the third and final Wild Card in the National League.

Luis Severino vs Luis Castillo

Severino*VSCastillo

Castillo has been hit and miss his last two starts, going 12.0 innings while allowing six runs on 14 hits and a walk with 13 Ks. Though he has slightly decreased his ERA in five starts since the All-Star break, from 3.53 to 3.48.

A longtime NLer, Castillo has ample history against the Mets lineup, and it’s mostly favorable for the pitcher. In 87 ABs, the New York hitters have a .230 average and .700 OPS with just two longballs (Jeff McNeil, Mark Vientos). Harrison Bader is 6-for-20 (.300) with two doubles but also eight strikeouts, while Francisco Lindor is 3-for-9 (.333) with two doubles, as well.

There is much less history between Severino and the Mariner lineup. Cumulatively, they have faced the 30-year-old righty just 23 times, and Jorge Polanco (2-for-7, 2 RBI) and Mitch Haniger (1-for-6) account for over half of those. Randy Arozarena and Mitch Garver are both 0-for-3 against the former Yankee.

Severino has been trending down since the All-Star break, though, his ERA rising from 3.78 to 4.06. Two starts ago, he was battered for six runs on six hits over just 3.0 innings in an 8-3 loss to the Twins. Last time out, he was tagged for five runs on eight hits over 5.0 innings in the rarified air of Coors Field.

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New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners Predictions for Sunday Night Baseball

The M’s should have a big edge on the mound in Sunday’s series finale. Not only has Castillo been pitching better than Severino of late, their respective home/road splits heavily favor Castillo. The 31-year-old Dominican has a sparkling 2.95 ERA at home (compared to 4.14 on the road) while Severino has a road ERA of 4.65 (compared to 3.54 at home).

While the Mariner hitters have been a massive disappointment, collectively, this season, ranking just 26th in wOBA (.296) and 21st in wRC+ (95), the last two-plus weeks have been considerably better from a run-production perspective: Seattle is averaging 5.38 runs per game over their last 14 (going 9-5 in that stretch) compared to just 3.75 RPG up to that point. The deadline additions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner have made an immediate impact.

The Mets also have a handful of players in their lineup who have a tendency to whiff against Castillo, including Bader (8 Ks) and Ben Gamel (9 Ks). Altogether, they have 27 strikeouts in just 87 ABs, which is just over a 31% K-rate.

NYM vs SEA picks: 

Mariners moneyline (-134)Castillo over 6.5 Ks (+122)

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