College Bowl Predictions 2019: All 39 Matchups Set

College Bowl Predictions 2019: All 39 Matchups Set

December 7, 2019 – by Jason Lisk

The Oregon Duck celebrates a Rose Bowl berth (Photo by Douglas Stringer/Icon Sportswire)

This year’s college bowl matchups were announced Sunday, December 8, with 78 different FBS teams being selected for bowl games that take place between the December 20, 2019 and the National Championship Game on January 13, 2020.

Below are the matchups and early point spreads for every bowl game. Remember, if you are in a college football bowl pool, check out our Bowl Pick’em Picks for recommendations and picks for the 2019-20 bowl matchups.

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Bowl Game	Date	Favorite	Point Spread (as of 12/9)	Underdog
Frisco	December 20, 2019	Utah State	-9.5	Kent State
Bahamas	December 20, 2019	Buffalo	-6	Charlotte
New Orleans	December 21, 2019	Appalachian State	-17	UAB
Las Vegas	December 21, 2019	Washington	-3.5	Boise State
Camellia	December 21, 2019	Arkansas State	-3	Florida International
Boca Raton	December 21, 2019	SMU	-3.5	Florida Atlantic
Cure	December 21, 2019	Georgia Southern	-5	Liberty
New Mexico	December 21, 2019	San Diego State	-4.5	Central Michigan
Celebration	December 21, 2019	North Carolina A&T	-1	Alcorn St
Gasparilla	December 23, 2019	Central Florida	-18	Marshall
Hawaii	December 24, 2019	BYU	-1.5	Hawaii
Quick Lane	December 26, 2019	Pittsburgh	-10.5	Eastern Michigan
Independence	December 26, 2019	Miami	-6.5	Louisiana Tech
Cheez-It	December 27, 2019	Air Force	-3	Washington State
Holiday	December 27, 2019	Iowa	-1.5	USC
Texas	December 27, 2019	Texas A&M	-6	Oklahoma State
Pinstripe	December 27, 2019	Michigan State	-3	Wake Forest
Military	December 27, 2019	North Carolina	-5	Temple
Camping World	December 28, 2019	Notre Dame	-3.5	Iowa State
Redbox	December 30, 2019	California	-6.5	Illinois
Music City	December 30, 2019	Mississippi St	-3	Louisville
First Responder	December 30, 2019	Western Kentucky	-2.5	Western Michigan
Alamo	December 31, 2019	Utah	-7	Texas
Arizona	December 31, 2019	Wyoming	-7	Georgia State
Liberty	December 31, 2019	Kansas State	-1	Navy
Sun	December 31, 2019	Arizona State	-5.5	Florida State
Belk	December 31, 2019	Virginia Tech	-3	Kentucky
Citrus	January 1, 2020	Alabama	-7	Michigan
Outback	January 1, 2020	Auburn	-7.5	Minnesota
Gator	January 2, 2020	Tennessee	-1.5	Indiana
Birmingham	January 2, 2020	Cincinnati	-7	Boston College
Famous Idaho Potato	January 3, 2020	Ohio	-6.5	Nevada
Armed Forces	January 4, 2020	Tulane	-7	Southern Miss
LendingTree	January 6, 2020	Louisiana	-14	Miami (OH)
NEW YEARS SIX BOWLS
Cotton	December 28, 2019	Penn State	-7	Memphis
Orange	December 30, 2019	Florida	-13.5	Virginia
Rose	January 1, 2020	Wisconsin	-2.5	Oregon
Sugar	January 1, 2020	Georgia	-7.5	Baylor
CFP PLAYOFFS
Fiesta	December 28, 2020	Clemson	-2	Ohio State
Chick-Fil-A	December 28, 2020	LSU	-12.5	Oklahoma

Below are all past bowl predictions before the announcements were made:

How We Make 2019 College Bowl Predictions

Making college bowl predictions is difficult for a variety of reasons, particularly as you move further away from the top games. That’s because:

Different conferences have different tie-ins and rules. Some are very structured, while others do not have any explicit rules for the ordering of teams to certain bowls.Not every conference has enough bowl-eligible teams to fill its allotments, opening up questions about which teams can and will be selected to replace those openings.

With the regular season now done, we no longer have to rely on our college football projected standings, with the exception of conference championship game outcomes. We still apply our subjective knowledge of the rules, the conference tie-ins, and the Selection Committee’s tendencies, making the necessary judgment calls along the way.

This year, 79 teams achieved bowl eligibility. Meaning one team that is eligible will be left behind. The most likely candidates are 6-6 teams from the Mid-American Conference or Conference USA. Each of those conferences has eight bowl-eligible teams but fewer bowl tie-ins than that.

2019 College Football Playoff and BCS Bowl Predictions

Here are our projected matchups for the Playoff games (Chick-Fil-A and Fiesta) as well as the other BCS Bowls. The rules for selection into the other BCS bowl games are:

The Rose Bowl selects the top Pac-12 and Big Ten teams not selected for the playoff.The Sugar Bowl gets the next Big 12 and SEC teams not to make the playoff.The Orange takes the next best ACC team not selected, versus the highest ranked remaining team from the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame.The top Group of Five team gets an automatic berth into the Cotton Bowl, against a wildcard team from any conference.

Bowl Game	Date	Team	Conference	Team	Conference
Fiesta	December 28, 2019	Ohio State	CFB Playoff (Big Ten)	Georgia	CFB Playoff (SEC)
Chick-Fil-A	December 28, 2019	Clemson	CFB Playoff (ACC)	LSU	CFB Playoff (SEC)
Sugar	January 1, 2020	Oklahoma	Big 12	Alabama	SEC
Rose	January 1, 2020	Wisconsin	Big 10	Utah	Pac-12
Orange	December 30, 2019	Virginia	ACC	Penn State	Big 10
Cotton	December 28, 2019	Baylor	At Large	Memphis	Group of Five

Georgia continues to hold on for the final playoff spot in our projections. See our full playoff forecast in our CFB Playoff Predictions Outlook post. Clemson, Ohio State, and LSU are favorites, but the last spot is wide open.

The decision on that last spot will have a big trickle down effect on the remaining BCS Bowls. A Big 12 team making the playoff, for example, moves the runner-up into the Sugar Bowl. If Utah makes the playoff, Oregon would go to the Rose Bowl. The race for the other Orange Bowl spot will also be tight, as any of Penn State, Alabama, Florida, Auburn, Minnesota, or Notre Dame could go there based on the final rankings.

Predictions For All Other 2019 Bowl Matchups

Here are the predictions for all remaining matchups. Replacement teams (because another conference could not meet all of their slots) are designated with a + sign.

Bowl Game	Date	Team	Conference	Team	Conference
Frisco	December 20, 2019	Tulane	American	Florida International	CUSA
Bahamas	December 20, 2019	Charlotte	C-USA	Buffalo	MAC
New Orleans	December 21, 2019	La Tech	C-USA	Appalachian State	Sun Belt
Las Vegas	December 21, 2019	Boise State	MWC	California	Pac-12
Camellia	December 21, 2019	Kent State	MAC	Arkansas State	Sun Belt
Boca Raton	December 21, 2019	Temple	American	Central Michigan	MAC
Cure	December 21, 2019	Liberty	Independent (American)	Georgia State	Sun Belt
New Mexico	December 21, 2019	Marshall	C-USA	San Diego State	MWC
Celebration	December 21, 2019	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	Alcorn St	SWAC
Gasparilla	December 23, 2019	Central Florida	American	Florida Atlantic	C-USA
Hawaii	December 24, 2019	Hawaii	MWC	BYU	Independent
Quick Lane	December 26, 2019	Miami	ACC/ND	Western Michigan	MAC (Big 10)
Independence	December 26, 2019	Florida State	ACC/ND	Western Kentucky	CUSA (SEC)
Cheez-It	December 27, 2019	Utah State+	MWC (Big 12)	Washington State	Pac-12
Holiday	December 27, 2019	Michigan	Big 10	Oregon	Pac-12
Texas	December 27, 2019	Iowa State	Big 12	Texas A&M	SEC
Pinstripe	December 27, 2019	Boston College	ACC/ND	Illinois	Big 10
Military	December 27, 2019	North Carolina	ACC/ND	Navy	American
Camping World	December 28, 2019	Notre Dame	ACC/ND	Kansas State	Big 12
Redbox	December 30, 2019	Indiana	Big 10	Arizona State	Pac-12
Music City	December 30, 2019	Louisville	ACC	Mississippi St	SEC
First Responder	December 30, 2019	Eastern Michigan	MAC (B10)	Southern Miss	CUSA
Alamo	December 31, 2019	Oklahoma State	Big 12	USC	Pac-12
Arizona	December 31, 2019	Wyoming	MWC	Louisiana	Sun Belt
Liberty	December 31, 2019	Texas	Big 12	SMU+	American (SEC)
Sun	December 31, 2019	Pittsburgh	ACC/ND	Washington	Pac-12
Belk	December 31, 2019	Wake Forest	ACC/ND	Kentucky	SEC
Citrus	January 1, 2020	Iowa	Big 10	Florida	SEC
Outback	January 1, 2020	Minnesota	Big 10	Auburn	SEC
Gator	January 2, 2020	Virginia Tech	ACC	Tennessee	SEC
Birmingham	January 2, 2020	Cincinnati	American	UAB	SEC
Famous Idaho Potato	January 3, 2020	Ohio	MAC	Nevada	MWC
Armed Forces	January 4, 2020	Michigan State	B10	Air Force	MWC
Mobile Alabama	January 6, 2020	Miami-OH	MAC	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt

Here are some notable changes and observations since last week:

TCU dropped out of the predictions as they lost at home to West Virginia, failing to get bowl eligibility. They were the only team projected with a greater than 50% chance of getting to six wins last week that failed to do so.Kent State and Boston College both won in upsets to get their sixth win and move into the bowl predictions.Toledo is the bowl-eligible team we are projecting out, though Ohio, Kent State, and Eastern Michigan are also 6-6 out of the MAC. Toledo is the lowest-rated 6-6 team in our predictive ratings at No. 114. Add in that they lost their final three games and five of their last seven, and have participated in more bowl games recently than the other MAC options, and that is why we project them as most likely to remain home.Virginia likely locked up the ACC slot to the Orange Bowl with a win. The Orange Bowl decision on the other team will have a ripple effect on several conferences. With Penn State in our latest projection to the Orange, an ACC team (Virginia Tech) now moves to the Gator Bowl, and SEC teams are better able to fill some other bowl slots.Kansas State’s win over Iowa State changes up the Big 12 predictions, and Kansas State is now predicted to go to the Camping World Bowl, with Iowa State dropping to the Texas Bowl.

Bowl Projections, Week of November 25:

How Many Teams Will Be Bowl Eligible from Each Conference?

With 78 spots to fill, there’s always the question of whether there will be enough eligible teams. To be eligible, a team must have at least as many wins as losses, and can use no more than one victory over a FCS team toward that total. Here is a summary of how many teams are already eligible. It also lists the total combined odds for all other teams in that conference of getting to bowl eligibility (“Potentially Eligible”).

Conference	Bowl Eligible	Potentially Eligible	Total Estimated
American	7	0.0	7.0
ACC	8	1.1	9.1
Big 12	6	0.9	6.9
Big Ten	8	1.2	9.2
C – USA	8	0.0	8.0
Independent	2	1.0	3.0
MAC	6	1.3	7.3
MWC	7	0.0	7.0
Pac 12	7	0.1	7.1
SEC	8	0.7	8.7
Sun Belt	5	0.2	5.2
TOTAL	72	6.5	78.5

Seventy-two teams meet the bowl eligibility requirements after last week’s games, with the most improbable new member being Florida International, who stunned Miami to get their sixth win. We project that on average 6.5 more teams will reach bowl eligibility, which would mean on average, there are just enough bowl eligible teams to fill all the slots. But upsets either way could easily change that.

2019 College Football Playoff and BCS Bowl Predictions

Here are our projected matchups for the Playoff games (Chick-Fil-A and Fiesta) as well as the other BCS Bowls. The rules for selection into the other BCS bowl games are:

The Rose Bowl selects the top Pac-12 and Big Ten teams not selected for the playoff.The Sugar Bowl gets the next Big 12 and SEC teams not to make the playoff.The Orange takes the next best ACC team not selected, versus the highest ranked remaining team from the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame.The top Group of Five team gets an automatic berth into the Cotton Bowl, against a wildcard team from any conference.

Bowl Game	Date	Team	Conference	Team	Conference
Fiesta	December 28, 2019	Ohio State	CFB Playoff (Big Ten)	Georgia	CFB Playoff (SEC)
Chick-Fil-A	December 28, 2019	Clemson	CFB Playoff (ACC)	LSU	CFB Playoff (SEC)
Sugar	January 1, 2020	Oklahoma	Big 12	Alabama	SEC
Rose	January 1, 2020	Wisconsin	Big 10	Utah	Pac-12
Orange	December 30, 2019	Virginia	ACC	Florida	SEC (or Big Ten/ND)
Cotton	December 28, 2019	Baylor	Big 12 (At Large)	Memphis	Group of Five

Georgia continues to hold on for the final playoff spot in our projections, just above Utah, Alabama, and Oklahoma. See our full playoff forecast in our CFB Playoff Predictions Outlook post. Clemson, Ohio State, and LSU are favorites, but the last spot is wide open.

The decision on that last spot will have a big trickle down effect on the remaining BCS Bowls. Just like last week, we currently project Florida to get an Orange Bowl berth. If four SEC teams are selected to BCS bowls, the secondary SEC bowls will have a difficult time filling all their slots. With Oregon’s loss, we also project that Baylor will be an attractive choice for the Cotton Bowl.

Predictions For All Other 2019 Bowl Matchups

Here are the predictions for all remaining matchups. Teams that have not officially reached six wins and bowl eligibility are noted with an asterisk (*). Replacement teams (because another conference could not meet all of their slots) are designated with a + sign.

Bowl Game	Date	Team	Conference	Team	Conference
Frisco	December 20, 2019	Tulane	American	Charlotte	C-USA
Bahamas	December 20, 2019	Western Ky	C-USA	Buffalo	MAC
New Orleans	December 21, 2019	Southern Miss	C-USA	Louisiana	Sun Belt
Las Vegas	December 21, 2019	Boise State	MWC	Washington St	Pac-12
Camellia	December 21, 2019	Ohio*+	MAC	Arkansas State	Sun Belt
Boca Raton	December 21, 2019	Temple	American	Western Michigan	MAC
Cure	December 21, 2019	Ohio*+	MAC (American)	Georgia State	Sun Belt
New Mexico	December 21, 2019	Marshall	C-USA	Nevada	MWC
Celebration	December 21, 2019	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	Alcorn St	SWAC
Gasparilla	December 23, 2019	Central Florida	American	Florida Atlantic	C-USA
Hawaii	December 24, 2019	Hawaii	MWC	BYU	Independent
Quick Lane	December 26, 2019	North Carolina*	ACC/ND	Michigan State*	Big Ten
Independence	December 26, 2019	Florida State	ACC/ND	Louisiana Tech+	CUSA (SEC)
Cheez-It	December 27, 2019	TCU*	Big 12	California	Pac-12
Holiday	December 27, 2019	Michigan	Big 10	Oregon	Pac-12
Texas	December 27, 2019	Kansas State	Big 12	Kentucky	SEC
Pinstripe	December 27, 2019	Pittsburgh	ACC/ND	Illinois	Big 10
Military	December 27, 2019	Miami	ACC/ND	Navy	American
Camping World	December 28, 2019	Notre Dame	ACC/ND	Iowa State	Big 12
Redbox	December 30, 2019	Indiana	Big 10	Arizona State	Pac-12
Music City	December 30, 2019	Louisville	ACC	Liberty*+	Independent (SEC)
First Responder	December 30, 2019	Utah State+	MWC (Big 12)	Florida International	CUSA
Alamo	December 31, 2019	Oklahoma State	Big 12	USC	Pac-12
Arizona	December 31, 2019	San Diego State	MWC	Appalachian St	Sun Belt
Liberty	December 31, 2019	Texas	Big 12	Cincinnati+	American (SEC)
Sun	December 31, 2019	Virginia Tech	ACC/ND	Washington	Pac-12
Belk	December 31, 2019	Wake Forest	ACC/ND	Mississippi St*	SEC
Citrus	January 1, 2020	Iowa	Big 10	Auburn	SEC
Outback	January 1, 2020	Penn State	Big 10	Texas A&M	SEC
Gator	January 2, 2020	Minnesota	Big 10	Tennessee	SEC
Birmingham	January 2, 2020	SMU	American	UAB	SEC
Famous Idaho Potato	January 3, 2020	Central Michigan	MAC	Wyoming	MWC
Armed Forces	January 4, 2020	Eastern Michigan+	MAC (Big 10)	Air Force	MWC
Mobile Alabama	January 6, 2020	Miami (OH)	MAC	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt

Here are some notable changes and observations since last week:

Oregon’s loss to Arizona State and Washington losing to Colorado shook up the Pac-12 picture. Oregon dropped out of the BCS Bowls and is now slotted for the Alamo Bowl. That has shifted the picture for the remaining teams in the conference. Washington drops down to the Sun Bowl, but could drop further with a loss to Washington State in the Apple Cup.Penn State’s loss to Ohio State also shifted the Big Ten picture. The Rose Bowl will likely take the team that reaches the Big Ten title game, and right now, that is projected to be Wisconsin narrowly over Minnesota.Miami losing to Florida International, combined with Virginia Tech’s dominant win over Pittsburgh and Louisville’s comfortable victory over Syracuse, has also shifted the ACC pecking order. Virginia Tech is now playing Virginia for a place in the ACC title game and a likely Orange Bowl berth as the second ACC team (assuming Clemson goes to the playoff), so the Hokies can make a huge jump up with another win.Nebraska kept their bowl hopes alive with a win at Maryland. They still need to upset Iowa. Do you think some bowls will be rooting for Nebraska to become bowl eligible? The Armed Forces Bowl in particular should be rooting for Nebraska to win. An Air Force vs. Nebraska matchup would be far more appealing than slotting a MAC team into that spot.

Teams Still Able to Get Bowl Eligibility

Here’s a list of every team who is not currently bowl eligible but can still become bowl eligible.

Team	Conference	Percent Chance	Opponent
Ohio	MAC	96%	at Akron
Liberty	Independent	91%	vs. New Mexico State
TCU	Big 12	89%	vs. West Virginia
Michigan St	Big Ten	89%	vs. Maryland
North Carolina	ACC	72%	at NC State
Mississippi St	SEC	71%	vs. Mississippi
Boston College	ACC	34%	at Pittsburgh
Nebraska	Big Ten	33%	vs. Iowa
Kent State	MAC	32%	at Eastern Michigan
Troy	Sun Belt	19%	vs. Appalachian State
Army	Independent	11%	at Hawaii and vs. Navy
Oregon St	Pac 12	4%	at Oregon
Colorado	Pac 12	3%	at Utah
La-Monroe	Sun Belt	3%	at Louisiana

We hope you have enjoyed our 2019 College Football Playoff Predictions. You can subscribe to see our College Bowl Pick’em Picks for 2019-2020. You can also check out our Betting Picks, and NFL Pick’em and NFL Survivor Pool Picks.

Bowl Projections, Week of November 18:

How Many Teams Will Be Bowl Eligible from Each Conference?

With 78 spots to fill, there’s always the question of whether there will be enough eligible teams. To be eligible, a team must have at least as many wins as losses, and can use no more than one victory over a FCS team toward that total. Here is a summary of how many teams are eligible. It also lists the total combined odds of all other teams in that conference in getting to bowl eligibility (potentially eligible).

For example, we project 2.7 potentially eligible teams in the Pac-12. That number comes from adding Washington State (90%), Arizona State (79%), California (62%), Oregon State (16%), Stanford (10%), UCLA (10%), Arizona (2%), and Colorado (0.4%). Our best estimate would be that two to three more Pac-12 teams get to bowl eligibility.

Conference	Bowl Eligible	Potentially Eligible	Total Estimated
American	7	0.0	7.0
ACC	8	1.5	9.5
Big 12	6	0.9	6.9
Big Ten	8	0.9	8.9
Conf USA	6	1.3	7.3
Indep	2	1.0	3.6
MAC	6	1.5	7.5
MWC	7	0.8	7.8
Pac-12	4	2.7	6.7
SEC	6	2.7	8.7
Sun Belt	5	0.7	5.7
TOTAL	65	14.0	79.0

Sixty-five teams already meet the bowl eligibility requirements. We project that on average 14 other teams will reach bowl eligibility. That means we currently project the bowls should (barely) be able to fill all games with teams that are 6-6 or better.

2019 College Football Playoff and BCS Bowl Predictions

Here are our projected matchups for the Playoff games (Chick-Fil-A and Fiesta) as well as the other BCS Bowls. Here are the rules for selection into the other BCS bowl games.

The Rose Bowl selects the top Pac 12 and Big Ten teams not selected for the playoff.The Sugar Bowl gets the next Big 12 and SEC teams not to make the playoff.The Orange takes the next best ACC team not selected, versus the highest ranked remaining team from the Big Ten, SEC, or Notre Dame.The top Group of Five team gets an automatic berth into the Cotton Bowl, against a wildcard team from any conference.

Bowl Game	Date	Team	Conference	Team	Conference
Fiesta	December 28, 2019	Ohio State	CFB Playoff (Big Ten)	Georgia	CFB Playoff (SEC)
Chick-Fil-A	December 28, 2019	Clemson	CFB Playoff (ACC)	LSU	CFB Playoff (SEC)
Sugar	January 1, 2019	Oklahoma	Big 12	Alabama	SEC
Rose	January 1, 2019	Penn State	Big Ten	Utah	Pac 12
Orange	December 30, 2019	Virginia	ACC	Florida	SEC
Cotton	December 28, 2019	Oregon	At-Large (Pac 12)	Memphis	Group of Five (American)

Georgia narrowly gets our last playoff spot for now. You can see our full rundown of the CFB Playoff Predictions Outlook. Clemson, Ohio State, and LSU are favorites, but the last spot is wide open. Georgia has about a 37% chance of being selected (basically, their odds of winning the SEC at 12-1). Alabama, Oklahoma, Washington, and Utah are each a little more likely to win out, but those teams are not assured a spot if they do.

That decision on the last spot will have a big trickle down effect on the remaining BCS Bowls. We currently project with Florida to get an Orange Bowl berth. If four SEC are selected, the secondary SEC bowls will have a difficult time filling all their slots.

Predictions For All Other 2019 Bowl Matchups

Here are the predictions for all remaining matchups. We note teams that have not officially reached six wins and bowl eligibility with an asterisk (*). We designated replacement teams (because another conference could not meet all of their slots) with a + sign.

Bowl Game	Date	Team	Conference	Team	Conference
Frisco	December 20, 2019	Ohio*+	MAC (American)	Liberty*+	Independent (Sun Belt)
Bahamas	December 20, 2019	Western Ky	C-USA	Buffalo*	MAC
New Orleans	December 21, 2019	Nevada	MWC	Appalachian State	Sun Belt
Las Vegas	December 21, 2019	Boise State	MWC	California*	Pac-12
Camellia	December 21, 2019	Toledo	MAC	Arkansas State	Sun Belt
Boca Raton	December 21, 2019	Charlotte*+	CUSA (American)	Miami OH	MAC
Cure	December 21, 2019	Temple	American	Georgia State	Sun Belt
New Mexico	December 21, 2019	Southern Miss	C-USA	Fresno State*	MWC
Celebration	December 21, 2019	North Carolina A&T	MEAC	Alcorn St	SWAC
Gasparilla	December 23, 2019	Central Florida	American	Florida Atlantic	C-USA
Hawaii	December 24, 2019	Hawaii	MWC	BYU	Independent
Quick Lane	December 26, 2019	North Carolina*	ACC/ND	Michigan State*	Big Ten
Independence	December 26, 2019	Wake Forest	ACC/ND	SMU*+	American (SEC)
Cheez-It	December 27, 2019	Kansas State	Big 12	Utah State+	MWC (Pac-12)
Holiday	December 27, 2019	Michigan	Big 10	Washington	Pac-12
Texas	December 27, 2019	Oklahoma State	Big 12	Mississippi State*	SEC
Pinstripe	December 27, 2019	Virginia Tech	ACC/ND	Illinois	Big 10
Military	December 27, 2019	Louisville	ACC/ND	Navy	American
Camping World	December 28, 2019	Notre Dame	ACC/ND	Iowa State	Big 12
Redbox	December 30, 2019	Indiana	Big 10	Arizona State*	Pac-12
Music City	December 30, 2019	Florida State	ACC	Kentucky*	SEC
First Responder	December 30, 2019	TCU*	Big 12	Marshall	CUSA
Alamo	December 31, 2019	Baylor	Big 12	USC	Pac-12
Arizona	December 31, 2019	San Diego State	MWC	Louisiana	Sun Belt
Liberty	December 31, 2019	Texas	Big 12	Cincinnati*	American (SEC)
Sun	December 31, 2019	Miami	ACC/ND	Washington State*	Pac-12
Belk	December 31, 2019	Pittsburgh	ACC/ND	Louisiana Tech+	CUSA (SEC)
Citrus	January 1, 2020	Wisconsin	Big 10	Auburn	SEC
Outback	January 1, 2020	Minnesota	Big 10	Texas A&M	SEC
Gator	January 2, 2020	Iowa	Big 10	Tennessee*	SEC
Birmingham	January 2, 2020	Tulane	American	UAB	SEC
Famous Idaho Potato	January 3, 2020	Central Michigan	MAC	Wyoming	MWC
Armed Forces	January 4, 2020	Eastern Michigan	MAC (Big 10)	Air Force	MWC
Mobile Alabama	January 6, 2020	Western Michigan	MAC	Georgia Southern	Sun Belt

Several top conferences could have a difficult time meeting all of their bowl spots this year, which will have a trickle down effect on other conferences. The SEC in particular is top-heavy, and that is compounded by Missouri being currently bowl-ineligible. (A final decision on Missouri’s appeal is still pending).The Gator, Outback and Citrus make their SEC selections, after the BCS/Playoff spots are filled. The  next tier after that includes four bowls: Belk, Liberty, Music City, and Texas. We currently project only two of those spots being filled by SEC schools. That also doesn’t include the Independence and Birmingham Bowls, which will almost certainly have to find replacements.The American Conference has secondary agreements with the Liberty and Independence. While they have no clear priority established for their bowl tie-ins, we saw them fill each of those bowls in the last two years when SEC teams could not. Memphis went to the Liberty Bowl two years ago, and Temple went to the Independence Bowl last year. We project them to fill those spots as well this year if the SEC cannot.The Big Ten could also have difficulty filling all their slots, especially if a third Big Ten team moves into a BCS bowl. Minnesota and Wisconsin are lurking on the edge of the AP top ten rankings, making it very possible. We already project them not to fill the Military Bowl slot. The Quick Lane Bowl in Detroit would likely be the next to lose a Big Ten team. The most obvious geographic fit for a replacement would be one of the MAC programs that are bowl eligible.The Big Ten has a clear hierarchy, but limits how frequently teams can return to bowls. That’s why, for example, we project Michigan to the Holiday Bowl, where they have not played since 1994.

Other Teams With An Outside Shot At Bowl Eligibility In 2019

These teams didn’t make our projected bowl matchups, but have a greater than 10% chance of bowl eligibility.

Team	Conference	Bowl Eligiblity	Remaining Games
Ball State	MAC	39%	Need to Win Both at Kent St and vs. Miami (OH)
North Texas	C-USA	36%	Need to Win Both at Rice and vs. UAB
Coastal Carolina	Sun Belt	34%	Need 2 Wins at La-Monroe and vs. Texas State
Boston College	ACC	34%	Need 1 Win at Notre Dame or at Pitt
Troy	Sun Belt	32%	Need 1 Win at Louisiana or vs. Appalachian State
Florida International	C-USA	24%	Need 1 Win vs. Miami or at Marshall
San Jose State	MWC	24%	Need to Win Both vs. Fresno St and at UNLV
Syracuse	ACC	21%	Need to Win Both at Louisville and vs. Wake Forest
Oregon State	Pac-12	16%	Need 1 Win at Washington St or at Oregon
NC State	ACC	16%	Need 2 Wins at Ga Tech and vs. North Carolina
Kent State	MAC	14%	Need 2 Wins vs. Ball State and at Eastern Michigan
Nebraska	Big 10	13%	Need 2 Wins at Maryland and vs. Iowa
Army	Independent	11%	Need 2 Wins at Hawaii and vs. Navy (N)
Stanford	Pac-12	11%	Need 2 Wins vs. California and vs. Notre Dame
Duke	ACC	10%	Need 2 Wins at Wake Forest and vs. Miami

We hope you have enjoyed our 2019 College Football Playoff Predictions. You can subscribe to see our College Bowl Pick’em Picks for 2019-2020. You can also check out our Betting Picks, and NFL Pick’em and NFL Survivor Pool Picks.

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