Portugal vs France Euro 2024 Quarterfinal Odds, Predictions & Props to Target

Dec 18, 2022; Lusail, Qatar; France forward Kylian Mbappe (10) reacts after scoring his second goal of the match against Argentina during the second half of the 2022 World Cup final at Lusail Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Yukihito Taguchi-USA TODAY SportsPrevious champions Portugal & France square off on Friday’s second Euro 2024 quarterfinalFrance are favorites to advance, but famously lost to Portugal in the ’16 Euro finalSee the Portugal vs France odds, predictions and prop bets before kickoff on July 5 at 3 pm ET

We may bear witness to the passing of the torch from one generational player to another in Saturday’s Euro 2024 afternoon quarterfinal.

Cristiano Ronaldo and sixth-ranked Portugal face a stiff challenge in its Euro 2024 quarterfinal against second-ranked France and the sure-to-be masked Kylian Mbappe. The Portugal/France quarterfinal kicks off at 3 pm ET on Saturday at the Volksparkstadion in Hamburg.

Portugal vs France Odds

France are favorites to win in regular time at +145 and are -142 to advance to the semifinals. Portugal is getting +230 to win in 90 minutes, but are just a slight plus-money dog to advance at +116. Odds for a Portugal/France draw after 90 minutes is +190.

Saturday’s over/under is leaning towards a modest amount of goals. The O/U of 2.5 goals has the under at -174 and the over at +142

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France heads into the Euro 2024 quarterfinals with odds to win the tournament at +250, the third-best of all remaining teams. At +900, Portugal owns the sixth-best Euro 2024 odds.

Only by lifting the championship trophy could either team match their previous best at the Euros. France holds two titles to their name, coming in 1984 and 2000, but Portugal’s is more recent, coming in 2016 and at the expense of France, no less.

However, France owns the recent head-to-head record against Portugal, albeit slightly. Going back over their last five matches, France is 2-2-1 with a +1 goal differential.

Portugal Results in 2024

*Opponents’ FIFA rankings at the time of each match. **Portugal defeated Slovenia on penalty kicks, 3-0.

Portugal has largely been in control of each of their Euro 2024 matches, which will be the final European Championship for talismanic striker Cristiano Ronaldo.

A stoppage-time winner was necessary in the opening win against Czechia, despite Portugal holding a 73% possession advantage. A clinical 3-0 victory over Turkiye guaranteed a place in the knockout round for the Seleção, which explains why eight starters were rested for Portugal’s final group stage match, a shock 2-0 loss to 74th-ranked Georgia.

Portugal’s performance in their Round of 16 match against Slovenia was somewhat similar to the Czechia game, except with no goals and the looming specter of penalties threatening an either/or result.

Ultimately, this match will be remembered for two events: Ronaldo’s Euro swansong tearfully interrupted by his poor penalty kick in AET; and the heroics of goalkeeper Diogo Costa, who stopped all three Slovenian PKs en route to a 3-0 win on penalties.

Similar to their group stage play, Portugal’s five pre-tournament friendlies were all decisive in their scorelines, either for or against the Seleção. Losses to Slovenia (2-0) and Croatia (2-1) were sandwiched between wins over Sweden (5-2), Finland (4-2), and Ireland (3-0).

Of their five goals scored at Euro 2024, one each came from Francisco Conceição, Bernardo Silva, and Bruno Fernandes, while two were own goals.

UEFA Euro 2024 Odds TrackerRead More

France Results in 2024

*Opponents’ FIFA rankings at the time of each match.

The opening victory for France at Euro 2024 was as pyrrhic as they come. Yes, they were able to see off a difficult Austria side 1-0, but the match essentially came to its conclusion when star striker Kylian Mbappe broke his nose on the shoulder of Austrian defender Kevin Danso.

France would next be without Mbappe for an evenly matched 0-0 draw against the Netherlands, before the striker would return to score against Poland, closing out the group stage with a 1-1 draw.

With or without Mbappe, France’s experience thus far has been a series of fits and starts, displaying periods of offensive dominance without the goals to show for it. However, their defense has been resolute, posting two clean sheets in the group stage and now a third in their 1-0 Round of 16 win over Belgium.

It was a tight, cagey affair, with France’s defense front holding court until a late winner was scored.

It’s not that France played poorly, in this knockout match or in the group stage, but penalties and own goals typically only come few and far between. For their sake, it’s a good thing that defense typically wins championships.

France’s pre-tournament friendlies were also largely rudimentary, but not without an early speedbump.

A 2-0 home loss to Germany in March saw Les Bleus go down a goal after just seven seconds, leaving them chasing the Germans for eighty-nine more minutes. Confidence for the Euros was then built behind wins over Chile (3-2) and Luxembourg (3-0), before a final 0-0 draw against Canada.

Goal scoring at the Euros has come at a premium for France. Across four matches, they’ve only compiled three goals in total, two of which were own goals and the other a penalty courtesy of Kylian Mbappe.

Portugal vs France Predictions & Picks

Despite a matchup of teams boasting two of the most prolific goalscorers playing today, I do not see a bloated scoreline in the cards for Portugal vs France.

First, this is the knockout round of a soccer tournament. You won’t see a lot of games with totals going over three goals unless there’s a sizable talent discrepancy between the two squads. Call it a battle of wills between two trepidatious opponents. And second, both squads have their own respective histories that suggest there will not be a lot of goals.

Portugal’s run to the 2016 Euro Championship is a perfect example. Three of their four knockout games were won after 90 minutes, either in AET or penalties. Yes, that was eight years ago, but Monday’s shootout win over Slovenia was like a sequel to the ’16 title team. They may not be scoring, but Portugal won’t let their opponents score, either.

For France, there’s no need to look past the current tournament. Les Bleus finished second in Group D by winning once and drawing twice, with a +1 GD despite scoring just one goal. Monday’s win over Belgium was more of the same, but with a Belgian own goal to spice things up. France are defensively stingy and arguably unlucky on offense, if you want to call three goals in four games against an xG of 6.94 “unlucky.”

There’s a chance this game will open up, but that only happens if a goal is scored early. To be honest, I don’t see it happening: combined they’ve scored a single goal in the first half in open play.

Both teams will come out of the tunnel cagey but cautious, and the goal scoring (if any) will be left to late in the match. It’ll be a crazy finish to a chess match of a game.

Portugal vs France picks:

Draw after 90 minutes (+190)Under 2.5 goals (-174)France to advance (-142)

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